TechShortsAppExperimental
Credibility Model / Alpha in Human Terms

Alpha in Human Terms

Understanding alpha as evidence that strengthens beliefs and supports hypotheses.

↑

Alpha (α) = Positive Evidence

Evidence that shows positive signals and strengthens a statement or hypothesis.

🌧️

Rain Forecasting Example

A system predicts rain in 2 hours. What evidence supports this prediction?

Alpha Evidence (Supports)

•Air humidity is increasing
•Clouds are darkening
•Atmospheric pressure dropping

Impact Analysis

Each piece of alpha evidence increases the probabilitythat the rain prediction is accurate. More alpha evidence = stronger confidence.

Alpha in Content Assessment

✓

Expert Verification

When domain experts validate technical claims in a video

✓

Empirical Support

When claims are backed by measurable data or reproducible results

✓

Source Credibility

When information comes from reputable, well-documented sources

💡

In summary: Alpha evidence gives positive weight to statements, making them more likely to be true. The more alpha evidence gathered, the stronger our confidence becomes.