Understanding how insufficient evidence leads to fragile beliefs that are easily changed.
The belief/confidence level of a human or system toward a statement, determined by the available evidence.
When a system can't easily decide if a statement is true or false because of insufficient evidence.
Characteristics:
When a system can decide if a statement is true or false based on sufficient evidence.
Characteristics:
Understanding uncertainty through the lens of human relationships
You meet someone for the first time. You have low data about their nature.
Your opinion is easily swayed because you lack sufficient data
After five years of friendship, you have substantial data about their character.
Your opinion is stable because you have sufficient evidence
High Uncertainty
Fragile beliefs
Moderate Uncertainty
Balanced evidence
Low Uncertainty
Stable beliefs
As evidence accumulates, uncertainty decreases and beliefs become more stable
High uncertainty refers to a fragile state of belief where limited data means that single pieces of evidence can dramatically shift perceptions. This is why low data inherently leads to high uncertainty.